Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Market context

On 26 June 2026 at 11:00 PM ET, Egypt and IR Iran face off in a pivotal FIFA World Cup Group G match, with the contest resolving after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. The crowd-implied probability of 16% for an exact score outcome suggests a tightly contested game where both defences are likely to dominate, mirroring historical patterns in World Cup group stages where low-scoring draws or narrow 1–0 results frequently occur. In their last five encounters, Egypt averaged 1.2 points per match while Iran conceded just 0.8, indicating a defensive stalemate that aligns with the current market pricing for specific scorelines [2].

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor pre-match line-ups, tactical announcements, and any late injury updates, as these dependencies directly influence scoring probabilities. Recent training footage shows Egypt’s clinical attacking edge preparing against Iran’s legendary defensive structure, a dynamic that could shift if either side alters its formation unexpectedly [4][5]. With Iran yet to progress beyond the group stages in seven World Cup appearances, their historical caution may further suppress scoring, making conditional orders on low-score outcomes a prudent strategy for bot-driven portfolios [6]. The settlement window closes at 03:00:00Z on 27 June, requiring precise timing for execution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.