France vs. Senegal - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

France and Senegal will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 3:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score," which typically captures the majority of probability mass in exact-score markets. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-match for official confirmation.

Exact-score markets in World Cup fixtures historically reflect the rarity of specific scorelines. France's recent tournament record shows they favour narrow victories or draws in group play—their last three World Cup group matches ended 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1. Senegal, conversely, has produced higher-variance results, including a 3–1 loss to Netherlands in 2022 and a 2–0 victory over Ecuador. The 6% implied probability for this market suggests traders are pricing in roughly 15–20 distinct scorelines as plausible, with the modal outcome likely France 2–0 or France 1–0. Comparable exact-score markets on established platforms typically see winning outcomes settle at 4–8% probability.

Traders monitoring squad announcements and injury updates should track official team sheets released 24 hours before kickoff. Recent form in qualifying and friendlies—particularly France's performance against lower-ranked sides and Senegal's defensive stability—will influence expected goal distribution. Conditional order logic can be structured around pre-match odds movements; if France's win probability shifts above 75%, exact-score outcomes favouring larger French margins (2–0, 3–0) may warrant algorithmic position adjustments. Live-score feeds should be cross-referenced against official FIFA records before settlement confirmation.

Methodology

We track France vs. Senegal - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.