Solana above 2026 on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Solana's closing price on the Binance SOL/USDT pair at precisely 12:00 noon Eastern Time on 7 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The settlement hinges on a single data point—the close of that specific minute—rather than daily or hourly aggregates, making it suitable for algorithmic execution via Binance API feeds or conditional order systems that monitor tick-level precision.

The 1% implied probability reflects the extreme specificity required: not merely a price level, but that exact level sustained through the close of a single minute at a predetermined time. Historical precedent suggests such tight-window markets typically trade at low probabilities unless the strike price sits within a few percentage points of current spot. Solana's volatility profile—often 3–8% daily swings during normal market conditions—means most strike prices set months in advance will drift substantially from the noon close by settlement date. Comparable single-minute resolution markets on other assets have shown that intraday noise and order-book microstructure frequently prevent prices from holding narrow bands at scheduled times.

Traders monitoring this market should track Solana's macroeconomic catalysts between now and June 2026, including network upgrades, validator participation metrics, and broader crypto market sentiment shifts. Binance's own liquidity conditions at noon ET on that date will matter; thin order books or flash volatility could push the close away from fair value. Programmatic traders would benefit from setting up Binance WebSocket listeners to capture the exact close price and cross-reference against their strike level, rather than relying on post-settlement data retrieval.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.