SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test was cleanly aborted at T‑0 on Thursday, 16 July 2026, just before liftoff, with no official cause disclosed yet [1][3]. The automated flight computer triggered a hold and abort call late in the countdown, scrubbing the attempt for the day [8]. A new launch date has not been determined, though SpaceX has indicated another attempt could happen “hopefully” in a few days [4].

Historically, late‑countdown Starship scrubs have preceded rapid re‑attempts rather than prolonged delays. Flight 11 and 12 both saw T‑0 holds followed by launches within 2–4 days once data reviews cleared the vehicle and pad [3]. The current 0% YES probability on the market reflects the immediate post‑abort state: no confirmed liftoff has occurred, and resolution hinges on whether the next attempt succeeds before the market’s expiry. Programmatic traders should treat this as a conditional order on the next scheduled window, not the original July 16 slot, and update their bots when SpaceX publishes a fresh launch date.

Key catalysts include an official announcement of the next launch window, range‑status updates, and any FAA advisory notices tied to the abort investigation [7][8]. Watch SpaceX’s launch page and X account for a revised date, and monitor live commentary for mentions of pad‑side or vehicle issues that could extend the delay [1][2]. Once a new window is set, conditional orders can be placed to capture the implied probability shift from 0% toward the historical success rate of post‑abort re‑attempts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.