Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Daniel Merida Aguilar and Andrea Pellegrino are scheduled to compete in a tennis match at the Perugia tournament on 6 June 2026, with the market settlement window closing on 13 June at 18:30 UTC. The 100% crowd-implied probability reflects either exceptionally high confidence in match completion or minimal liquidity depth, both of which warrant scrutiny when designing conditional order logic. Settlement hinges on match advancement rather than scoreline, meaning the market resolves binary provided the match concludes within seven days of the scheduled date.

ATP Challenger and ITF circuit matches at Italian venues historically demonstrate completion rates exceeding 95%, though surface conditions and player injury status introduce material variance. Comparable Perugia tournaments over the past three seasons show cancellations primarily driven by weather or late withdrawals announced 48 hours prior to play. The current 100% reading suggests traders have assigned negligible probability to cancellation, delay beyond the seven-day window, or tie outcomes—a positioning that leaves limited margin for schedule disruptions or administrative complications.

Traders monitoring this market should track official ATP or tournament communications for withdrawal announcements, which typically surface 24–72 hours before match time. Weather forecasts for Perugia on 6 June and any subsequent days become actionable data points for assessing delay risk. Programmatic approaches should incorporate a conditional trigger tied to official tournament postponement notices; the seven-day resolution window provides a buffer, but late rescheduling into that window could create arbitrage opportunities if crowd probability fails to adjust downward accordingly.

Methodology

We track Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.