Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo | 51% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 4% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, los cabos open, qualification: borna gojo vs aidan mayo stands at 51% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Borna Gojo and Aidan Mayo in the Los Cabos Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
We track Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Borna Gojo vs Aidan Mayo on Polymarket Bot UK
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