Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky faces Duncan Chan in the Granby Challenger match originally slated for 13 July 2026, where Milavsky is the favoured contender to advance. Initial odds positioned Milavsky at 1.50 against Chan’s 2.375, with Tennis Tonic explicitly picking the Canadian to win in three sets [1]. The crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for Milavsky advancing suggests the market has already priced in a near-certain outcome, mirroring historical patterns where pre-match favourites with odds under 1.60 in Challenger events resolve decisively unless injury or weather intervenes.

Programmatically, a bot evaluating this market would treat the 100% probability as a signal of low volatility but high settlement risk if the match is delayed beyond the seven-day window. Traders should monitor the official ATP Challenger schedule for any postponement notices, as Granby has seen rain delays in previous years affecting match completion. A recent update from TennisStats confirms the head-to-head record was last logged on 14 July 2026, indicating no new data has emerged to shift the odds [2]. Conditional orders should be set to exit if the match status changes to “delayed” or “cancelled,” as the market resolves to 50-50 in those scenarios, eroding the current premium.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.