Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin. This market refers to the tennis match between Christopher O'Connell and Andres Martin in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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