Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Arthur Rinderknech and Martin Damm are scheduled to compete in a Bordeaux tennis match on 14 May 2026. The 0% implied probability suggests either missing data in the market or a technical issue, as both players have active professional records and no public withdrawal announcements have been reported. Rinderknech, a French player ranked in the ATP top 100, typically competes on clay and hard courts across European circuits. Damm's participation status requires verification, as the Czech player has had periods of reduced tournament activity in recent seasons.

For programmatic traders, the settlement window extends to 21 May 2026—seven days beyond the scheduled date—which means delays or postponements within that week would trigger a 50-50 resolution rather than a walkover. Key catalysts include official ATP or tournament withdrawal notices, injury announcements, or scheduling conflicts with higher-ranked events. Court surface confirmation (Bordeaux typically hosts clay events) should be cross-referenced against player recent performance data, as surface preference significantly influences match outcomes. Automated monitoring of ATP official channels and tournament draw updates would flag any changes to player participation or match timing before the settlement deadline.

The extreme probability reading warrants manual verification of player availability and tournament status before committing capital. Recent tournament schedules and player injury reports from ATP sources should be consulted to establish whether this reflects genuine market inefficiency or incomplete information in the prediction market's underlying data.

Methodology

We track Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.