Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 94% |
| O/U 37.5 | 92% |
| O/U 39.5 | 86% |
| O/U 41.5 | 82% |
| Memphis O/U 23.5 | 80% |
| Spread -0.5 | 79% |
| O/U 43.5 | 79% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| Memphis O/U 26.5 | 76% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 72% |
| Spread -3.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 70% |
| Spread -4.5 | 68% |
| Spread -5.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 65% |
| Memphis O/U 29.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 64% |
| Spread -6.5 | 63% |
| O/U 51.5 | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 57% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 14.5 | 57% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| East Carolina O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Memphis O/U 32.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| East Carolina O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Memphis O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Memphis O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| East Carolina vs. Memphis: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina vs. Memphis: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina vs. Memphis: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Memphis 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Memphis Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina vs. Memphis: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina vs. Memphis: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| East Carolina vs. Memphis: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| Spread -13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 57.5 | 44% |
| East Carolina O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Memphis O/U 35.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| Spread -14.5 | 40% |
| O/U 59.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 38% |
| Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| O/U 61.5 | 35% |
| East Carolina O/U 26.5 | 34% |
| Spread -17.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 33% |
| O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| O/U 65.5 | 26% |
| O/U 67.5 | 23% |
| East Carolina O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| East Carolina vs. Memphis | 21% |
| Spread -0.5 | 21% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| East Carolina O/U 32.5 | 20% |
| O/U 69.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| O/U 71.5 | 16% |
| Spread -3.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| O/U 73.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| O/U 75.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of east carolina vs. memphis. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between East Carolina and Memphis, scheduled for October 22 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "East Carolina" if East Carolina win the…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $143K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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