Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame vs. Navy | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 100% |
| O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Navy 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Spread -20.5 | 99% |
| Spread -17.5 | 99% |
| Spread -16.5 | 99% |
| Spread -13.5 | 99% |
| Spread -4.5 | 99% |
| Spread -3.5 | 99% |
| Spread -0.5 | 99% |
| Spread -14.5 | 98% |
| Spread -10.5 | 98% |
| Spread -8.5 | 98% |
| Spread -7.5 | 98% |
| Spread -21.5 | 98% |
| Spread -19.5 | 98% |
| Spread -15.5 | 98% |
| Spread -9.5 | 98% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| Notre Dame 2H O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Navy: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Navy: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Navy: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Navy 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Navy: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Navy: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Notre Dame vs. Navy: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -50.5 | 50% |
| Spread -47.5 | 50% |
| Spread -44.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| Spread -32.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Notre Dame O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -36.5 | 49% |
| O/U 53.5 | 36% |
| O/U 51.5 | 29% |
| Spread -24.5 | 27% |
| Spread -23.5 | 26% |
| Spread -27.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 25% |
| Navy O/U 23.5 | 7% |
| Spread -35.5 | 6% |
| Spread -37.5 | 4% |
| O/U 69.5 | 3% |
| Spread -31.5 | 3% |
| Spread -30.5 | 3% |
| O/U 55.5 | 2% |
| O/U 57.5 | 2% |
| O/U 65.5 | 2% |
| O/U 67.5 | 2% |
| O/U 75.5 | 2% |
| Spread -43.5 | 2% |
| Spread -40.5 | 2% |
| Spread -33.5 | 2% |
| Spread -29.5 | 2% |
| O/U 63.5 | 1% |
| Spread -46.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Notre Dame 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Navy 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Navy 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
| Spread -38.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, notre dame vs. navy stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Notre Dame and Navy, scheduled for October 31 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Notre Dame" if Notre Dame win the game. This…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.2M.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%230ea5e9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%230ea5e9%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%230ea5e9%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%230ea5e9%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%230ea5e9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Notre Dame vs. Navy on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →