Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 79% |
| O/U 37.5 | 75% |
| O/U 39.5 | 70% |
| New Mexico State O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 63% |
| O/U 43.5 | 60% |
| Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| New Mexico State O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| O/U 45.5 | 54% |
| 1H Moneyline | 54% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Sam Houston O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| New Mexico State O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Sam Houston Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| Sam Houston O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| O/U 49.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 51.5 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 53.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| O/U 55.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 29% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| Sam Houston O/U 35.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 21% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| O/U 61.5 | 19% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| O/U 73.5 | 6% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 79% probability to new mexico state vs. sam houston. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico State and Sam Houston, scheduled for October 21 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico State" if New Mexico State win the game. …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $153K.
Methodology
We track New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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