Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 92% |
| Spread -1.5 | 92% |
| Spread -2.5 | 92% |
| Spread -3.5 | 87% |
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| Spread -4.5 | 86% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 23.5 | 86% |
| Spread -5.5 | 84% |
| Spread -6.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 39.5 | 79% |
| Spread -7.5 | 78% |
| Spread -8.5 | 78% |
| Spread -9.5 | 77% |
| O/U 41.5 | 74% |
| Spread -10.5 | 73% |
| Spread -11.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 72% |
| O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| Spread -13.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| Spread -12.5 | 70% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| Spread -14.5 | 65% |
| Spread -16.5 | 63% |
| O/U 45.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Spread -15.5 | 61% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 59% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| Spread -17.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| Spread -18.5 | 55% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -19.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 35.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL): Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| O/U 51.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Spread -22.5 | 44% |
| Spread -23.5 | 43% |
| O/U 53.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| Spread -24.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| O/U 55.5 | 36% |
| Spread -25.5 | 35% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Spread -26.5 | 33% |
| O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| Spread -27.5 | 32% |
| Spread -28.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| Spread -30.5 | 25% |
| O/U 61.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 63.5 | 20% |
| Spread -33.5 | 20% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 23.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| 1H Moneyline | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| Spread -34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -36.5 | 12% |
| Spread -37.5 | 11% |
| O/U 71.5 | 9% |
| O/U 73.5 | 9% |
| Spread -40.5 | 9% |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL) | 8% |
| Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -1.5 | 8% |
| Spread -0.5 | 8% |
| O/U 75.5 | 7% |
Market context
Market consensus: 92% chance of pittsburgh vs. miami (fl). Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Pittsburgh and Miami (FL), scheduled for October 24 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh" if Pittsburgh win the game…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $165K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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