Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Texas Super Kings

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the Major League Cricket match between Seattle Orcas and Texas Super Kings, scheduled for 5 July 2026 in Pomona, California. Texas Super Kings defeated Seattle Orcas by six wickets in the season opener, winning 221/4 to 220/2 with Faf du Plessis scoring 113 runs and Tim Seifert hitting a century for the Orcas[1][6]. This result establishes a clear performance baseline, showing Texas’s superior batting depth and Orcas’s vulnerability in high-pressure chases.

Historically, head-to-head records over the last five matches show Seattle Orcas winning one and losing four, averaging 162.8 runs per game, while Texas Super Kings won two and lost three, averaging 161.8 runs[3]. The 100% YES crowd-implied probability reflects this dominance, but traders should monitor team announcements, pitch conditions, and any player injuries before the match. Recent highlights confirm Texas’s resilience and Seattle’s reliance on individual brilliance, as seen in Seifert’s century[7]. Programmatically, conditional orders should trigger on confirmed playing squads and weather updates, with bots tracking live score feeds from espncricinfo.com for real-time resolution signals[1]. Traders must watch for schedule dependencies, such as travel delays or over-rate penalties, which could alter the outcome despite the strong historical trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Texas Super Kings across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.