Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Burnley FC will host Aston Villa FC in a Premier League fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026, with settlement at 13:00 UTC. The 35% implied probability for a Burnley victory reflects the visiting side's recent competitive standing relative to the home team's form trajectory entering the final fixture of the season.

Historical context shows Burnley's home record against Villa over the past five seasons has been mixed, with neither side establishing decisive dominance at Turf Moor. When examining comparable late-season encounters between mid-table and upper-mid-table sides, home advantage typically commands a 5–8 percentage point uplift in win probability, yet Villa's away record in 2025–26 has been stronger than Burnley's home performances. The current 35% probability sits below the typical home-field adjustment, suggesting the market is pricing in Villa's superior squad depth and recent results more heavily than historical venue patterns.

Traders monitoring this market should track team news releases and official injury confirmations through the week preceding the match, particularly regarding key defensive or attacking personnel for both sides. Fixture congestion in the preceding fortnight—whether either club has European commitments or midweek cup ties—will materially affect squad rotation decisions. Conditional orders tied to competing markets (e.g., final league position settlements) may prove useful for hedging exposure, as both teams' remaining fixtures and goal-difference scenarios could influence tactical approach. Live-odds monitoring in the 48 hours before kickoff typically captures late-breaking team-sheet information that moves probabilities measurably.

Methodology

This page reviews Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.