Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Nottingham Forest will host Newcastle United in a Premier League fixture on 10 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match result at full-time. The 23% implied probability for a Forest victory reflects Newcastle's recent competitive standing relative to Forest's mid-table positioning in the 2025–26 season. Historical head-to-head records show Newcastle have won 11 of the last 20 league meetings, though Forest secured a 1–0 victory at St James' Park in the 2023–24 campaign, demonstrating that home advantage at the City Ground carries meaningful weight in this fixture.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track squad availability updates through official team news channels, particularly regarding Newcastle's injury status in the final weeks before May. Fixture congestion in late April—both sides typically face midweek commitments—affects rest cycles and rotation decisions. The settlement window closes at 13:00 on match day, creating a narrow window for late-breaking team-sheet information. Conditional order logic should account for odds movement following official lineups, which are typically released 90 minutes before kickoff. Forest's home record and Newcastle's away performance variance in the run-in will be the primary drivers of probability shifts in the final fortnight.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.