Indonesia vs. Mozambique

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Indonesia and Mozambique are scheduled to contest a FIFA International Friendly on Tuesday, 9 June 2026. The match represents a relatively low-stakes fixture in the international calendar, with both nations using such encounters to assess squad depth and tactical approaches ahead of major competitions or qualifiers. The 90% YES probability implies strong market confidence in Indonesia's victory, reflecting their higher FIFA ranking and recent competitive record.

Historically, Indonesia has maintained a material advantage over Mozambique in head-to-head encounters and broader competitive metrics. Indonesia ranks approximately 160th in the FIFA world rankings, whilst Mozambique typically sits outside the top 200. Previous friendlies between Southeast Asian sides and African nations of comparable development have generally favoured the Asian representatives, particularly when played at neutral or home venues. This precedent anchors the current probability distribution, though friendly matches carry inherent volatility—squad rotation, injury absences, and tactical experimentation can produce unexpected results.

Traders should monitor team sheet announcements in the days preceding the fixture, particularly regarding key player availability for either side. Fixture scheduling changes, weather conditions at the venue, and late injury disclosures represent the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities materially. Programmatic traders might condition orders on official squad confirmations from the respective football associations, using API feeds from sports data providers to trigger position adjustments if notable absences emerge. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on match day, requiring automated systems to account for potential fixture delays or postponements that could extend resolution timelines.

Methodology

We track Indonesia vs. Mozambique on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.