Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A men's international football friendly between the Republic of Ireland and Qatar is scheduled for 28 May 2026. The match forms part of the FIFA International Friendlies calendar, a fixture window typically used by national teams for preparation ahead of major tournaments or competitive qualifiers. Settlement occurs at 18:45 UTC on match day, with the market resolving YES if the fixture takes place as scheduled.

The 100% implied probability reflects the structural certainty of a confirmed friendly fixture rather than predictive confidence in any particular outcome. Friendlies between established national teams rarely cancel once officially announced; historical precedent shows such matches proceed unless extraordinary circumstances—severe weather, security incidents, or pandemic-level disruptions—intervene. The Ireland–Qatar pairing carries lower geopolitical friction than some international matchups, reducing tail-risk cancellation scenarios. Comparable friendly fixtures scheduled 18+ months in advance typically settle YES at rates exceeding 98%.

Traders using conditional order logic should monitor FIFA's official fixture calendar and both federations' public statements for any rescheduling announcements, though these remain uncommon post-confirmation. Stadium availability and hosting arrangements—likely in Ireland given home-team convention—represent the primary operational dependencies. Injury crises or domestic league fixture congestion occasionally prompt squad rotation but do not affect match occurrence. For bot-based monitoring, tracking official FAI (Football Association of Ireland) and Qatar Football Association communications provides the most reliable signal; mainstream sports news outlets typically report cancellations with minimal lag.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.