Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 12 June at 3:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score," which typically captures 70–85% of probability mass in exact-score markets across major tournaments. The 10% crowd probability assigned to this specific outcome reflects the low base rate of any single scoreline occurring in international football.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets on group-stage matches between teams of differing strength concentrate probability heavily on outcomes involving 1–2 goals. Canada's 2022 World Cup campaign saw them concede 9 goals across three group matches, whilst Bosnia-Herzegovina failed to qualify for Qatar 2022 and have not appeared in a World Cup since 2014. Their last competitive meeting was a 2016 friendly (1–1 draw). Traders evaluating this market programmatically should note that group-stage matches rarely produce scorelines above 3–2; the median exact-score probability for any single outcome in such fixtures sits around 8–12%.

Catalysts to monitor include squad announcements and injury updates closer to June 2026, particularly regarding Canada's attacking depth and Bosnia-Herzegovina's defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the days preceding the match and official team news releases will inform conditional-order strategies. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, allowing minimal post-match arbitrage opportunity; traders using automated tools should set execution parameters well before kickoff to avoid execution risk near the deadline.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.