Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
14% | 86% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
14% | 86% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia | 14% |
| Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia | 13% |
| Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia | 11% |
| Switzerland 1 - 0 Colombia | 10% |
| Switzerland 0 - 2 Colombia | 9% |
| Switzerland 1 - 2 Colombia | 9% |
| Switzerland 2 - 1 Colombia | 7% |
| Switzerland 2 - 0 Colombia | 5% |
| Switzerland 2 - 2 Colombia | 5% |
| Any Other Score | 5% |
| Switzerland 1 - 3 Colombia | 4% |
| Switzerland 0 - 3 Colombia | 3% |
| Switzerland 3 - 0 Colombia | 2% |
| Switzerland 3 - 1 Colombia | 2% |
| Switzerland 2 - 3 Colombia | 2% |
| Switzerland 3 - 2 Colombia | 2% |
| Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia | 1% |
Market context
The upcoming FIFA World Cup Round of 16 clash between Switzerland and Colombia will take place on Tuesday, 7 July 2026 at 4:00 PM ET at BC Place in Vancouver, with the market resolving strictly on the 90-minute regulation score. This fixture carries significant historical weight, as the two nations met in the 1994 World Cup where Colombia secured a decisive 2-0 victory, a result that still frames how analysts interpret the current 11% crowd-implied probability for an exact score outcome[2][10]. Programmatic traders often reference this 1994 scoreline when building conditional order bots, noting that Colombia’s attacking flair and Switzerland’s defensive rigidity have historically produced low-scoring, narrow-margin games rather than high-variance blowouts[5][7].
Key catalysts for traders monitoring this market include final squad announcements expected within 24 hours of the match, which could alter the implied probability if Colombia’s creative midfielders are rested or if Switzerland’s top scorer is unavailable[1]. Recent form data indicates Switzerland has scored first in 15 of their last 17 matches, while Colombia enters as one of South America’s most dangerous teams with superior attacking firepower[5][7]. A bot-driven approach would track live odds movements on ESPN and Sky Sports platforms, where the current spread suggests a slight edge for Colombia, and adjust conditional orders based on real-time injury updates or weather conditions at BC Place[3][4]. Traders should also monitor the over/under 2.5 goals market, which currently sits at +130 for over, as this dependency directly influences the likelihood of specific exact score outcomes[4].
Methodology
This page reviews Switzerland vs. Colombia - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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