Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 8% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, england vs. argentina - player props stands at 92% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track England vs. Argentina - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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