Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| France Corners: O/U 4.5 | 72% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 69% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 66% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 65% |
| France Corners: O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 51% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| France Corners: O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Sweden Corners: O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| France Corners: O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 33% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 26% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 85% probability to france vs. sweden - total corners. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track France vs. Sweden - Total Corners across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade France vs. Sweden - Total Corners on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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