Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup quarterfinal between Norway and England, scheduled for 11 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, will resolve on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. This match pits England, who recently defeated Mexico 3–2 in a dramatic Round of 32 clash featuring goals from Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham[1][9], against Norway, a nation returning to the World Cup after a 28-year absence and powered by Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard[3][10]. Norway has already secured two consecutive knockout wins, including a historic 2–1 upset over five-time champions Brazil, marking their deepest run in tournament history[5][6][8].

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup quarterfinals with a 7% crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome often reflect the volatility of high-stakes knockout football where defensive rigidity or a single moment of brilliance dictates the result. Comparable cases include England’s 1–0 victory over Norway in a previous encounter where Wayne Rooney scored a penalty[4], and Norway’s recent 2–1 win over Brazil where Haaland’s late goals sealed the upset[8]. For a power-user employing conditional orders or copy-trading bots, this 7% probability suggests a low-likelihood but high-impact event, requiring algorithmic monitoring of line movements rather than static position-holding.

Traders must watch for final squad announcements, particularly regarding Haaland’s fitness after his two-goal performance against Brazil[6], and England’s defensive setup following Thomas Tuchel’s red-card incident in the Mexico match[9]. The settlement window ending 21:00:00Z on 11 July demands precise timing for conditional order execution, as any postponement keeps the market open until completion. Recent coverage confirms both nations have advanced to the quarterfinals, with Haaland’s scoring form and England’s resilience against altitude being key catalysts to monitor before the match[2][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. England - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.