Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Portugal Corners: O/U 3.5 | 77% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 69% |
| Croatia Corners: O/U 2.5 | 67% |
| Portugal Corners: O/U 4.5 | 63% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 62% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Portugal Corners: O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| Croatia Corners: O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Portugal Corners: O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| Croatia Corners: O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 25% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 17% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 79% YES probability for Portugal vs. Croatia - Total Corners. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Portugal vs. Croatia - Total Corners across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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