Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 58% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 46% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 35% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Trade United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →