Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CA Huracán O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| CA Huracán O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CA Huracán 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Huracán 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 0.5 | 8% |
| Both Teams to Score | 5% |
| CA Tucumán (-1.5) | 4% |
| O/U 1.5 | 2% |
| CA Huracán (-1.5) | 1% |
| CA Huracán (-2.5) | 1% |
| CA Tucumán (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Tucumán 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Tucumán 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Huracán’s Primera División meeting with Atlético Tucumán is scheduled for 3 August at 8:15 pm ET, and the “more markets” contract is about whether any ancillary market beyond the headline result gets added or remains live through the settlement window. For a power-user, this is best treated like an event-driven feed check: watch the listing status, market taxonomy, and whether a secondary market appears before the deadline rather than assuming the football result itself drives the pay-out.
Comparable pricing around the match has generally implied Huracán as the stronger side, with bookmaker moneylines around the low-to-mid 40s in win probability terms and draw prices near 3.0 decimal, while Atlético Tucumán have been the longer-priced side. Recent market snapshots also point to a relatively tight, low-scoring profile, with both-teams-to-score priced as the less likely outcome and correct-score lines clustering around 1-0, 0-0, and 0-1. That matters for programmatic handling because “more markets” contracts often react to whether the exchange opens extra derivative books, not to the match scoreline itself.
For catalysts, the key watchpoints are late team news, final confirmation of the fixture time, and any platform-side update that expands or removes related markets. Official line-up releases, competition scheduling changes, and market-listing edits are the practical triggers to monitor in a bot or conditional-order workflow, because they can change whether additional props are surfaced before settlement. Market data at publication still showed Huracán modestly favoured, but the contract’s value is mostly in the presence or absence of new sub-markets rather than pre-match match odds.
Methodology
We track CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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