Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, croatia open: marco cecchinato vs roman andres burruchaga stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Cecchinato and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market w…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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