Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Game Spread +/-2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 21.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 22.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 23.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov. This market refers to the tennis match between Kimmer Coppejans and Jurij Rodionov in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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