Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha | 72% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Match O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set 2 Winner | 48% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, canadian open, qualification: martin damm vs henrique rocha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Damm and Henrique Rocha in the Canadian Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This mark…
Methodology
This page reviews Canadian Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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