San Marino: Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro

Platform comparison

Market context

Vilius Gaubas versus Thiago Monteiro is a direct match-up in San Marino, with the market set to resolve on who advances rather than on set score or margin. For a programme that polls feeds or copies into conditional orders, the key field is simply the winner/advancer, because a retirement, abandonment or no-contest can still push the market towards a 50-50 settlement depending on timing and whether the match was completed.[1][12]

The main historical read-through is that Monteiro has already beaten Gaubas in their prior meetings, including a straight-sets win in Bad Waltersdorf in 2024 and another three-set victory at Bastad in 2025.[7][8] Those results matter more than raw ranking noise in a short-horizon market, because head-to-head on clay has shown Monteiro handling the tighter points better: in the Bastad match he won 52.9% of total points, converted 30% of break chances, and held serve at a higher rate than Gaubas.[2][8] The 100% YES crowd price therefore looks like a position that may already be fully one-sided, or a stale line that assumes Monteiro advancement without differentiating between match status and settlement path.[1][6]

The practical catalysts are all operational: official draw updates, start-time confirmation, live score status, and any retirement or suspension flag before the 7-day settlement cut-off. ATP and score-track pages are the fastest sources for whether the match is actually played and finished, and the ATP head-to-head record shows this pairing has been tracked on tour-level systems before.[1][15] If you are scripting this, the safest trigger is to watch for a completed-result feed rather than pre-match odds, because a delayed start, walkover, or unfinished match can change the settlement regime even if one player is already heavily favoured.[1][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track San Marino: Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.