Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 4 Winner | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 38% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex …
Methodology
This page reviews Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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