Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CA Mineiro O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| SC Internacional 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SC Internacional (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Mineiro (-1.5) | 0% |
| SC Internacional (-2.5) | 0% |
| CA Mineiro (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Internacional host Atlético Mineiro at Beira-Rio in the Brasileirão on 22 August, with fixtures listed for 21:30 UTC/22:30 BST and the match already appearing as live or completed in match feeds by the settlement deadline. The crowd-implied 0% YES on a “more markets” contract suggests the market is pricing no qualifying follow-on markets being added or resolved within the window, so the default read is that the event is already over the relevant threshold for any late expansion.
For comparable cases, traders usually treat “more markets” style contracts as a workflow check rather than a football pick: if the base fixture is locked, the main edge comes from whether the venue, kick-off time, and competition metadata stay unchanged through settlement. Historical pricing on these markets tends to collapse towards zero once the underlying match is confirmed and no extra instrument is scheduled, because the contract depends on a procedural trigger, not the scoreline. Programmatically, this is the sort of market that gets handled with schedule polling and state verification rather than line-modelling.
Catalysts to watch are administrative, not tactical: fixture rescheduling, official competition changes, market rule edits, and any late correction to the match identifier or settlement timestamp. The most relevant live dependency is whether the game remains anchored to the confirmed Série A slot at Beira-Rio, since those feeds already show the match on 22 August and the deadline has passed. If a trader is automating entries or copy-trading, the key check is whether the contract state is still open to modification before the settlement window closes, because after that point the practical risk is stale data rather than match variance.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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