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Mirassol FC vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Mirassol FC vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

O/U 0.5 100% O/U 1.5 100% Both Teams to Score 100% 1st Half O/U 0.5 100% Volume: $157K Liquidity: $1.0M Closes: 2 Aug 2026
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Mirassol FC vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5100%
O/U 1.5100%
Both Teams to Score100%
1st Half O/U 0.5100%
Mirassol FC O/U 0.5100%
Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5100%
Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5100%
2nd Half O/U 0.5100%
Grêmio FBPA 2nd Half O/U 0.5100%
Mirassol FC (-1.5)0%
Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)0%
Mirassol FC (-2.5)0%
Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)0%
O/U 2.50%
O/U 3.50%
O/U 4.50%
O/U 5.50%
Both Teams to Score in First Half0%
1st Half O/U 1.50%
1st Half O/U 2.50%
Mirassol FC O/U 1.50%
Mirassol FC O/U 2.50%
Grêmio FBPA O/U 1.50%
Grêmio FBPA O/U 2.50%
Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 1.50%
Grêmio FBPA 1st Half O/U 0.50%
Grêmio FBPA 1st Half O/U 1.50%
Both Teams to Score in Second Half0%
2nd Half O/U 1.50%
2nd Half O/U 2.50%
Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 0.50%
Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 1.50%
Grêmio FBPA 2nd Half O/U 1.50%

Market context

Mirassol FC meet Grêmio FBPA in the Copa do Brasil, and the **0% YES** crowd price implies the market is currently assigning no meaningful chance to the “more markets” side as settled by the listed rules. For a power-user, that kind of read is usually treated as a signal to verify the contract mechanics first: these auxiliary markets can hinge on a specific stat, half, or in-play condition, so the relevant workflow is to map the event feed, confirm the official match clock, and watch for any rule-specific settlement language before using bots, conditional orders, or copy-trade triggers.

The recent head-to-head frame is not especially supportive of a one-sided Mirassol view. Mirassol beat Grêmio 2-1 in Série A on 17 July 2026, and the teams have split the last two meetings in Mirassol’s favour, with Mirassol winning both[1][4][20]. That recent result matters because programmatic traders often weight the latest verified scoreline more heavily than longer-run form when a market is tightly tied to a single fixture state, but it also cuts the other way: a prior upset can make the market more sensitive to line-up news rather than stale table position. Grêmio were above Mirassol in the league standings in the available July data, which is relevant only as context, not as a settlement input[3][4].

The main catalysts are the official match-day announcements: starting line-ups, late injuries, and any confirmed rotation after the competition schedule is published, because those are the inputs that most often move derivative markets before kick-off. In practical tooling terms, traders would typically wire alerts to the team news drop, then let a bot compare the released XI against preloaded projections and fire conditional orders only if the market reprices after verification. Recent score and fixture records are available from mainstream match feeds, but the decisive trigger for settlement remains the officially declared outcome of the Copa do Brasil match itself[1][4][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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