Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng hosted Chongqing Tonglianglong in a Chinese Super League fixture scheduled for 1 August, with this “More markets” contract tied to whether the game generated additional resolvable sub-markets before the 2 August settlement window closed. For a bot or copy-trading workflow, the practical check is simple: monitor the match feed for official market creation, suspension, or cancellation events rather than the scoreline itself, because the instrument is about market availability and not the result of play. [5][11]
The current 100% YES pricing implies traders were treating the appearance of extra match markets as a near-certainty, which fits a live, listed league fixture rather than a niche or abandoned event. Comparable CSL meetings between these sides have been straightforward to price because they are regular domestic fixtures with standard pre-match props, and the April meeting in Chongqing finished 2-0 to the home side, while the broader season data show both clubs as established top-flight participants with enough coverage to support a full market set. [3][4][7][10]
The main catalysts to watch are administrative rather than tactical: official kick-off changes, late postponement notices, and any exchange-side suspension around line-ups or weather, all of which can affect whether “more markets” remain live through settlement. Programmatically, the cleanest approach is to poll the event state, compare it with the bookmaker or exchange market list, and flag any new derivative markets as soon as they are published, since the contract resolves on the existence of those markets rather than on match outcomes. Live score providers show the fixture and its status, making them the fastest operational dependency for automation. [1][5][9]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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