Bolivia vs. Scotland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Scotland and Bolivia are scheduled to contest a FIFA International Friendly on Saturday, 6 June 2026. The match forms part of the fixture calendar ahead of the 2026 World Cup qualification cycle and provides both nations an opportunity to test squad depth and tactical approaches in a low-stakes environment. The 0% implied probability on a Bolivia victory reflects the substantial gap in recent competitive performance between the two sides.

Bolivia's record in international friendlies against European opposition remains poor. Since 2020, the Bolivian national team has won only two matches against sides ranked outside the top 100, whilst Scotland—despite UEFA ranking volatility—maintains a considerably stronger win rate in comparable fixtures. Historical head-to-head data is sparse; the nations last met in 2019 when Scotland prevailed 2–0 in a friendly. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should note that friendly matches exhibit higher variance than competitive fixtures, yet the underlying quality differential persists across squad composition, recent form, and altitude considerations (Bolivia typically plays at high elevation, though venue confirmation remains pending).

Key catalysts include squad announcements from both federations, likely in early June, which will signal injury status and selection priorities. Fixture congestion in the preceding weeks—particularly for Scottish players in European club competitions—could materially affect availability. Conditional order logic should account for late team news; a significant injury to Scotland's attacking contingent or Bolivia fielding an unusually strong squad would represent meaningful information shifts. Settlement occurs immediately post-match on 6 June at 20:00 UTC.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.