Jordan vs. Colombia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A FIFA International Friendly between Jordan and Colombia is scheduled for Sunday, 7 June 2026. The match forms part of pre-tournament preparation windows ahead of the 2026 World Cup, when national teams typically face lower-ranked or regional opponents to test squad depth and tactical adjustments. Colombia, ranked 12th globally as of late 2025, would be heavy favourites against Jordan, currently ranked around 80th. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on match day, allowing traders to monitor team news and official lineups released in the hours before kickoff.

Historical precedent suggests Colombia's ranking advantage should translate to decisive odds. In comparable friendlies between top-20 and 80+ ranked sides, the higher-ranked team wins approximately 75–80% of matches, with draws accounting for most remaining outcomes. Jordan has competed in AFC Asian Cup qualifiers and regional tournaments but lacks the competitive depth of CONMEBOL opponents. The 0% YES probability currently priced reflects this asymmetry, though friendly matches carry inherent volatility—squad rotation, injury absences, and experimental formations can compress expected margins.

Traders monitoring this market should track official squad announcements from both federations, typically released 48–72 hours before kickoff. Colombia's availability of key players from European clubs and any late withdrawals would shift implied probabilities materially. Conditional order logic could automate position adjustments upon confirmation of Colombia's starting XI composition or injury news affecting their defensive line. The settlement hinges on the final scoreline, making real-time lineup data the primary catalyst for repricing.

Methodology

We track Jordan vs. Colombia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.