Australia vs. Türkiye - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Australia and Türkiye will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 12:00 AM ET. The market resolves YES only if the match ends with one of the explicitly listed exact scorelines after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; any other result settles to "Any Other Score." The 9% implied probability reflects the specificity required—predicting an exact final score is inherently difficult, as even favoured outcomes typically carry single-digit odds when broken into discrete results.

Historical World Cup group-stage matches between comparable nations provide calibration. Australia and Türkiye have met twice in competitive fixtures, with results of 1–1 (2014 Asian Cup) and 0–3 (2006 World Cup qualifier). The 2006 result was an outlier; typical group-stage encounters between mid-ranked sides cluster around 1–1, 1–0, or 2–1 outcomes. Recent tournament data shows that exact-score markets for group matches between nations ranked 20–40 globally (Australia currently 38th, Türkiye 39th) distribute probability across roughly 8–12 plausible scorelines, with the modal outcomes—draws and narrow wins—each capturing 15–25% of the YES probability pool.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury bulletins from both federations through May 2026, as absences of key players shift expected goal-scoring patterns. Fixture scheduling within the group will also matter: if either team plays their previous match just 48 hours before this fixture, fatigue effects may suppress total goals. Conditional-order strategies work well here—setting triggers on confirmed lineups or group-stage results that precede this match allows automated position adjustments based on revealed information rather than static pre-tournament assumptions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.