Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 27% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 91% YES probability for Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props on Polymarket Bot UK
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