England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 9% implied probability for a specific exact scoreline reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise match outcomes; across major tournaments, exact scores typically cluster around low-scoring results (1–0, 0–0, 2–1) but remain individually rare events.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in group-stage fixtures favour outcomes within the 0–3 goal range. England and Croatia last met competitively in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, which Croatia won 2–1 after extra time. In qualifying and tournament play over the past eight years, England has averaged 1.8 goals per match whilst Croatia has averaged 1.3. Group-stage matches typically produce tighter scorelines than knockout fixtures, with draws and single-goal margins accounting for roughly 60% of outcomes. Traders using conditional-order logic should weight the probability distribution heavily towards 1–0, 0–0, and 2–1 scenarios.

Squad announcements and injury reports will emerge in the weeks preceding the fixture; monitor official team sheets released 48 hours before kickoff for changes affecting attacking depth. Weather conditions in the host nation (likely Mexico or USA) may influence goal-scoring patterns. Fixture congestion in the group stage—with England potentially playing every three days—could affect team selection and fatigue levels, creating variance in expected scoring. Recent form data from qualifying rounds and pre-tournament friendlies will provide the most reliable calibration for exact-score probability adjustments.

Methodology

We track England vs. Croatia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.