Tunisia vs. Japan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia meet Japan in a World Cup group match in Monterrey, with the market’s 24% YES implying an upset or a Tunisia-positive result rather than the baseline Japan side of the book. On comparable evidence, Japan have the cleaner head-to-head profile: they have won three of the four recorded meetings, including a 2-0 friendly in October 2023, while Tunisia’s lone win in the series came in June 2022. Japan also arrive with stronger recent form, including four wins and a draw in their last five matches, and they opened this tournament with a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands. [1][2]

For a power-user, the sensible way to approach this market is to treat it as a live input problem rather than a static opinion. Programmatic trading would usually key off team news, confirmed line-ups, and any late schedule or qualification dependencies, because Tunisia’s position in the group and Japan’s need to manage progression scenarios can shift incentives quickly. Goal’s preview notes Tunisia were bottom of the group after a 5-1 loss to Sweden, which raises the importance of any late injury or tactical bulletin before kick-off. [1] ESPN lists Japan as a pre-match favourite, with market odds around -190 on the moneyline and Tunisia at +600, so the current 24% crowd price is notably more generous to Tunisia than the sportsbook baseline and may reflect either event risk or expectation of volatility. [2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Tunisia vs. Japan on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.