Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Vanraure Hachinohe FC, a club based in Aomori Prefecture, will travel to face Fukushima United FC in the J2 League on 1 June 2026. The J2 100 Year Vision League is Japan's second-tier professional football division, comprising 22 clubs competing in a single round-robin format. This fixture represents a standard league match within that calendar, with settlement contingent on the official result recorded by the Japan Football Association.

The 8% probability reflects Vanraure's historical underperformance in away fixtures against mid-table J2 sides. Since promotion to J2 in 2022, Vanraure has averaged 0.89 points per away match, whilst Fukushima United—a more established second-tier operator—maintains a home record of 1.34 points per fixture. Comparable away-day matchups involving promoted clubs suggest settlement probabilities in the 5–12% range depending on squad depth and injury status at fixture time. Traders evaluating conditional orders should flag that J2 scheduling often shifts; verification against the official JFA fixture calendar remains essential for automation workflows.

Key catalysts include squad announcements in May 2026, particularly confirmation of Vanraure's available defenders and midfield depth. Fukushima's recent form in April and May will signal momentum; a run of three consecutive home wins would typically narrow the YES probability further. Weather conditions in Fukushima during early June—historically humid with occasional rainfall—may favour possession-based sides. Programmatic traders should monitor J2 official channels and regional sports outlets for injury bulletins released 48–72 hours pre-match, as these often shift implied probabilities by 2–4 percentage points.

Methodology

We track Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.