Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-1.5) | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Gangwon FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Gangwon FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Gangwon FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Gangwon FC face Bucheon FC 1995 in a K-League fixture with the *More Markets* set settling around the match, so the relevant question for a programme-driven trader is not the winner but whether any additional pricing, props, or side markets are listed and resolved by the deadline. Public match trackers show the game as live on 1 August, and the current crowd-implied 0% YES suggests the market is priced as though no qualifying “more markets” outcome is expected to appear before settlement.[1][2]
The historical frame is fairly narrow: these sides have split their recent head-to-heads closely, with Bucheon leading the all-time series 6-5-2 across 13 meetings, and the latest league meeting on 18 March finishing 0-0.[2][8][14] That profile matters for bot users because low-scoring, tightly balanced encounters tend to produce fewer in-play submarkets than open games, and recent form data also leans conservative, with multiple sources flagging a run of under-2.5-goal results for both clubs.[4][6][11]
The main catalysts to watch are match-centre updates rather than headline news: official line-ups, late injuries, postponed kick-off times, and any added market listings on the event page can change whether a “more markets” condition is satisfied. For an automated workflow, the practical approach is to poll the exchange and any mirror sportsbooks for new instruments, compare them with the scheduled 10:30 UTC settlement window, and flag only newly created or materially revised markets before the deadline.[1][10][20]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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