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LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

O/U 3.5 Games 75% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 68% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 68% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 66% Volume: $145K Liquidity: $276K Closes: 3 Jul 2026
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LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 75% 25% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 75% 25% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 3.5 Games75%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon66%
Any Player Quadra Kill54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Game 4 Winner49%
First Blood in Game 4?49%
Game 1 Winner48%
Game 2 Winner48%
Game 3 Winner48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
Match Winner47%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon40%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon40%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5)37%
O/U 4.5 Games35%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor29%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)19%
Any Player Penta Kill9%
Any Player Penta Kill9%
Any Player Penta Kill9%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 75% probability to lol: g2 esports vs top esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between G2 Esports and Top Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 4:00AM ET. This market w…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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