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LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) 84% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? 71% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? 64% Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) 60% Volume: $133K Liquidity: $458K Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
84% 16% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
84% 16% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)84%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?71%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5?64%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)60%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon54%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?51%
First Blood in Game 5?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor47%
Any Player Quadra Kill47%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor47%
Any Player Quadra Kill47%
First Blood in Game 1?44%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors43%
O/U 3.5 Games42%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors42%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?38%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?37%
Game 4 Winner36%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?36%
First Blood in Game 4?29%
First Blood in Game 3?28%
First Blood in Game 2?27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Game 2 Winner17%
Game 3 Winner17%
O/U 4.5 Games15%
Game 1 Winner14%
Any Player Quadra Kill14%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor12%
Match Winner7%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors7%
Any Player Penta Kill6%

Market context

Market consensus: 84% chance of lol: team secret whales vs top esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Secret Whales and Top Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 11:0…

Methodology

We track LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
and

Trade LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-S… on Polymarket Bot UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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