Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Atlético San Luis 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Atlético San Luis (-1.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis (-2.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atlético San Luis will host CF Cruz Azul in Liga MX on 17 July at 9:00 PM ET. This fixture falls within the regular season and carries standard competitive weight for both clubs' standings and playoff positioning. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 18 July, allowing roughly four hours post-match for result confirmation and market resolution.
Historical matchups between these sides show competitive balance, though Cruz Azul has held a marginal edge in recent seasons. When evaluating the 0% implied probability, consider that "more markets" clusters typically aggregate secondary betting lines—total goals, both teams to score, exact scorelines—rather than outright winner bets. A zero reading often reflects low initial liquidity or a placeholder state before traders populate the book. Comparable Liga MX fixtures at this stage of the season have seen probability distributions shift materially once team news breaks; San Luis's home record and Cruz Azul's away form should anchor baseline expectations.
Traders should monitor squad announcements through 17 July, particularly injury updates and lineup confirmations released 24–48 hours before kickoff. Recent Liga MX coverage via ESPN Deportes and official club channels will flag roster changes. Programmatically, conditional orders tied to confirmed lineups or weather alerts can automate entry logic. The settlement window's tight four-hour margin means automated monitoring of official Liga MX result feeds and cross-referencing with multiple sources reduces manual verification overhead. Dependency tracking on related markets—such as total goals or first-half outcomes—can signal early probability shifts before this market reprices.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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