Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Atlanta Braves face the New York Mets on 14 June at 1:40 PM ET in a regular-season National League East matchup. The 13% implied probability for a Braves victory suggests the market is pricing the Mets as substantial favourites, likely reflecting recent form, pitching matchups, or roster availability at settlement time.

Historical context for NL East divisional games shows that single-game probabilities often shift materially within 48 hours of first pitch, particularly when starting pitcher confirmations arrive or injury reports surface. The Braves' 2024 season trajectory and head-to-head record against the Mets in June typically anchors baseline expectations, though weather delays at Citi Field or Atlanta can trigger postponements that extend the settlement window. Comparable June fixtures between these clubs over the past three seasons have seen probability swings of 8–15 percentage points once lineups are finalised.

Traders using conditional order logic should monitor official MLB roster announcements and starting pitcher confirmations, which typically occur 24 hours before game time. The Mets' recent injury status and bullpen availability—particularly if key relievers are unavailable—represent material catalysts that could shift the probability meaningfully. Weather forecasts for the scheduled 1:40 PM ET slot warrant tracking, as afternoon games in the Northeast are prone to postponement. Programmatically, setting alerts for official MLB communications and ESPN injury updates will capture the most relevant signals before the settlement window closes on 21 June.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.