Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago White Sox travel to face the New York Yankees on 16 June at 7:05 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. Resolution occurs on 23 June, allowing five days for completion should weather or scheduling force postponement. The market settles to the winning team's name; cancellation without a make-up game or a tied result triggers a 50-50 split.

The 0% YES probability reflects the Yankees' substantial historical advantage in head-to-head matchups and current roster composition. Over the past decade, New York has won roughly 55–60% of games against Chicago in regular-season play. The White Sox entered 2024 in a rebuilding phase with a younger roster, whilst the Yankees maintain consistent playoff contention. For algorithmic traders, this baseline skew suggests the market has priced in structural factors—payroll disparity, win-loss records, and recent form—rather than game-specific variables. Comparable markets on underdog teams in similar positions typically show 15–25% implied probability; the 0% here indicates either extreme confidence in the favourite or insufficient liquidity for price discovery.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments and injury reports released 24–48 hours before first pitch. Recent Yankees roster updates and White Sox lineup changes will shift the probability meaningfully if key players become unavailable. Weather forecasts for the Bronx on 16 June may also trigger conditional order adjustments, particularly if rain threatens the scheduled time slot. Tracking official MLB communications and team announcements through 15 June remains essential for programmatic position management, especially given the five-day settlement window.

Methodology

We track Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.