Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs

Platform comparison

Market context

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Chicago Cubs 8–6 in a 10th-inning thriller at Wrigley Field on Monday, 20 July 2026, with Spencer Torkelson delivering a two-run single to seal the win [1]. This outcome aligns precisely with the current 100% YES crowd-implied probability, confirming the market has already resolved in favour of the Tigers as the game is complete and the final statistics are official.

Historically, MLB prediction markets with 100% implied probability post-game reflect settled events where the governing body’s final record is unambiguous; similar cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show no reversals once ESPN or MLB’s official recap is published [1]. For programmatic traders, this means conditional orders or copy-trading bots should treat the market as closed, with no need to monitor for postponement clauses since the game was not delayed or cancelled.

Traders evaluating tooling should watch for any late official score corrections from MLB, though such events are rare after an ESPN recap is issued [1]. The primary dependency is the settlement timestamp (2026-07-28T00:05:00Z), which serves as the final confirmation window for automated systems to lock in the resolution. No further announcements or schedule changes are relevant, as the game has concluded and the Tigers’ victory is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.