Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming MLB contest pits the Detroit Tigers against the New York Yankees on Monday, 29 June at 7:05 PM ET, with the Tigers needing a victory to resolve the market favourably. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 45% for a Tigers win, while traditional moneyline odds from FanDuel and DocSports favour the Yankees at -142 and -160 respectively, projecting a 55.8% win chance for New York[1][2]. This divergence mirrors historical patterns where public sentiment on prediction platforms often lags behind sharp moneyline adjustments, particularly in games featuring a favoured home team with a strong starting pitcher.

For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the key catalyst is the confirmed starting line-up and any late-injury updates to the pitching rotation, as these dependencies directly alter conditional order execution. Recent analysis from DocSports highlights Josh Schonwald’s pick for the Tigers at +132, suggesting a potential value discrepancy if the market overreacts to the Yankees’ home advantage[2]. Traders should monitor real-time feeds for roster announcements before the 23:05 settlement window, as a single pitching change can shift the implied probability by several percentage points, creating arbitrage opportunities for bots executing conditional orders based on live odds feeds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.