New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The game between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies in Philadelphia is already a completed event, and the market’s 100% YES implied probability lines up with the final score: Philadelphia won 15-3 on 20 June 2026. ESPN and Fox Sports both show the Phillies as the winners, with Kyle Schwarber driving the offence and Bryce Harper also featured prominently in the box score. [1][5]

For a trader using tooling, the key historical comparison is that a market like this moves from pre-game pricing to a near-hard outcome once the final MLB line is in, because settlement follows the official result rather than live momentum. In practice, programmatic approaches would treat the event status as binary once the final game state is published, while still checking for any postponement, suspended-game or tie-edge case in the rules. The presence of the game story and condensed-game pages also indicates the fixture was played to completion rather than left pending. [2][8]

The main catalysts to watch on similar MLB markets are not in-game score swings once the final is posted, but admin dependencies: official completion status, any weather delay that pushes the fixture into a make-up slot, and whether the league records the game as final versus suspended. The schedule pages show the surrounding series continued immediately after this fixture, including another Mets-Phillies listing on 21 June, which is the sort of detail a bot would use to reconcile postponement risk and confirm whether a make-up could affect settlement timing. [3][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.